BTC / USD
BTC Hourly Price Prediction
Every hour, we generate a BTC end-of-hour price prediction within a ±$100 win range using Kalshi prediction market probabilities, Polymarket cross-reference, and real-time technical analysis. We track every call — wins, losses, and how close we got.
AI Direction · BTC · Next Hour
Partial data (1)
⚠ STALE
conf
55%
edge
—
vs kalshi
55¢
kalshi action
NO TRADE
[STALE] Spot is already ~27 above the 84699.99 strike, momentum is positive over the last 90 minutes (+0.23%) and last 15 minutes (+0.10%), funding is mildly positive suggesting slight long bias, and OI is ticking up slightly, all supporting a lean toward the price staying above the strike, though the edge over Kalshi's 55-cent YES is modest.
Track record: 684W–672L · 50%
Generated 2.4 hr ago
Resolves 00:00 UTC
End-of-Hour Prediction
$84,847
Win range: $84,747 – $84,947 (±$100)
↑ $36 from $84,811 at prediction time
--:--
until hour end
Created
6:56 PM PDT
24H Sentiment
▲ Bullish
189 above vs 1 below markets
TA Trend (24H)
▲ Bullish
EMA20 > EMA50 · RSI 62
Support / Resistance
$84,462 – $85,197
Support: Swing Low · Resistance: BB Upper
Suggested Entry (Buy)
$84,679
EMA20 pullback · SL $84,018 · TP $85,197
Track Record
Predictions
3559
all-time
Wins
2067
within ±$100
Losses
1492
Win Rate
58.1%
Avg Closeness
$163
avg miss
Streak
1 wins
Win = actual BTC price at hour end within ±$100 of prediction. See full history →
Model Self-Calibration · 3585 predictions learned
Confidence Offset
-7.4%
global calibration
↑ Up Bias
-1.2%
WR 60% · 2105 preds
↓ Down Bias
-2.3%
WR 56% · 1480 preds
TA Boost
+0.9%
aligned 58% vs 57%
Last update 3:08 AM PDT: up_bias -0.007→-0.012 (up WR 60% over 2098 preds)