BTC / USD
BTC Hourly Price Prediction
Every hour, we generate a BTC end-of-hour price prediction within a ±$100 win range using Kalshi prediction market probabilities, Polymarket cross-reference, and real-time technical analysis. We track every call — wins, losses, and how close we got.
AI Direction · BTC · Next Hour
Partial data (1)
⚠ STALE
conf
52%
edge
—
vs kalshi
66¢
kalshi action
NO TRADE
[STALE] BTC spot is sitting ~$4 above the $63,000 strike with minimal volatility, positive funding, and stable open interest, suggesting a moderate probability of remaining above strike at resolve, while the Kalshi implied probability of 66% appears modestly low given current positioning.
Track record: 164W–149L · 52%
Generated 4.1 hr ago
Resolves 09:00 UTC
End-of-Hour Prediction
$62,951
Win range: $62,851 – $63,051 (±$100)
↑ $5 from $62,946 at prediction time
--:--
until hour end
Created
5:21 AM PDT
24H Sentiment
▲ Bullish
189 above vs 1 below markets
TA Trend (24H)
▼ Bearish
EMA20 < EMA50 · RSI 42 · near BB lower
Support / Resistance
$62,916 – $62,986
Support: BB Lower · Resistance: EMA20
Suggested Entry (Buy)
$62,916
At support · SL $62,808 · TP $62,986
Track Record
Predictions
2594
all-time
Wins
1555
within ±$100
Losses
1039
Win Rate
59.9%
Avg Closeness
$161
avg miss
Streak
39 wins
Win = actual BTC price at hour end within ±$100 of prediction. See full history →
Model Self-Calibration · 2620 predictions learned
Confidence Offset
-6.8%
global calibration
↑ Up Bias
-1.2%
WR 62% · 1589 preds
↓ Down Bias
-1.8%
WR 58% · 1031 preds
TA Boost
+0.9%
aligned 61% vs 58%
Last update 5:06 AM PDT: confidence_offset -0.074→-0.068 (actual WR 60% vs predicted 80%)