BTC / USD
BTC Hourly Price Prediction
Every hour, we generate a BTC end-of-hour price prediction within a ±$100 win range using Kalshi prediction market probabilities, Polymarket cross-reference, and real-time technical analysis. We track every call — wins, losses, and how close we got.
AI Direction · BTC · Hourly
Partial data (1)
⚠ STALE
conf
55%
edge
7¢
vs kalshi
52¢
[STALE] Spot at 59491 is ~9 points below the 59500 strike with negative last-15min momentum (-0.21%), declining OI (-1.2%), and mildly elevated funding suggesting longs are under slight pressure, giving a modest edge to settling below the strike.
Track record: 343W–291L · 54%
Generated 21.0 hr ago
Resolves 17:00 UTC
End-of-Hour Prediction
$58,394
Win range: $58,294 – $58,494 (±$100)
↑ $64 from $58,330 at prediction time
--:--
until hour end
Created
6:02 AM PDT
24H Sentiment
▲ Bullish
189 above vs 1 below markets
TA Trend (24H)
▶ Neutral
EMA20 < EMA50 · RSI 28 oversold · near BB lower
Support / Resistance
$58,429 – $59,351
Support: BB Lower · Resistance: EMA20
Suggested Entry (Buy)
$58,429
At support · SL $57,850 · TP $59,351
Track Record
Predictions
1648
all-time
Wins
962
within ±$100
Losses
686
Win Rate
58.4%
Avg Closeness
$176
avg miss
Streak
2 losss
Win = actual BTC price at hour end within ±$100 of prediction. See full history →
Model Self-Calibration · 1674 predictions learned
Confidence Offset
-7.9%
global calibration
↑ Up Bias
-0.7%
WR 62% · 1011 preds
↓ Down Bias
-2.3%
WR 55% · 663 preds
TA Boost
+1.5%
aligned 60% vs 56%
Last update 3:05 AM PDT: up_bias -0.002→-0.007 (up WR 62% over 885 preds)